Israel has killed 2 Hamas military leaders this month. But will it change the underlying conflict
Over the past two weeks, Israel’s military has killed both the leader of Hamas’ military wing and his replacement — the latest in a long string of targeted killings aimed at senior militants.
They were identified as Mohammed Odeh and Izz al-Din al-Haddad, architects of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Officials say their killings were part of broader efforts to pursue those behind the attacks that triggered the war in Gaza.The killing of military chiefs such as Odeh and Haddad points to Israel’s operational ability to reach Hamas’ military leadership,” said Nasser Khdour of the nonprofit ACLED, which tracks reports of political violence and conflict worldwide. But, he added, “the killing of senior commanders is unlikely, on its own, to push Hamas toward disarmament or make it accept the complete removal of its role in Gaza’s security and governance.”
An age-old tactic
Israel has carried out dozens of targeted killings throughout its history, but Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups have often endured and grown even more pthe loss of top leaders.
Take Hezbollah, for example. An Israeli airstrike killed its then-leader Abbas Musawi in southern Lebanon in 1992. Under Nasrallah, his charismatic replacement, Hezbollah grew into the region’s most powerful armed group and fought Israel to a bloody stalemate in 2006.
Nasrallah and nearly all of his deputies were killed in the 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Iran-backed group suffered other major losses that year, but resumed missile and drone attacks on Israel days after the start of the current war.The United States has also resorted to targeted killings against al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, taking out Osama bin Laden in a 2011 raid in Pakistan and IS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019. Both groups have been vastly diminished, but only after yearslong wars involving ground forces.
The question is who comes after
Yossi Kuperwasser, the former head of Israel’s military intelligence research division, said in March that targeted killings can be an effective tool but are not a “cure for all problems.”
“These operations by themselves don’t dramatically change the ability of those organizations he said. “But it’s important for Israel to weaken its enemies.”
In Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran, he noted, Israel has taken out dozens of figures, reshaping the leadership structure in lasting ways.
Targeted killings were a key strategy in the early days of the Iran war. Top military and political officials up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in the war’s opening salvos. Khamenei has been replaced by his son, Mojtaba, who is seen as even less compromising