IMD says above-normal rain in October, northeast monsoon may be delayed
NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a week-long delay in the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM), mainly affecting the southern states. This delay stems from a stalled withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon, due to multiple weather systems over the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and troughs and cyclonic circulations in Central and Eastern India.The NEM usually starts in mid-October and lasts until mid-December, bringing rainfall to five southern subdivisions: Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka. The IMD predicts above-normal NEM rainfall, likely over 112% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The IMD has also forecast above-normal rainfall for October across India. Most regions are expected to experience below-normal maximum temperatures. However, the Northeast, Western Himalayas, and Saurashtra and Kutch will likely see above-normal minimum temperatures
Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, stated, “As the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon has been stalled due to these multiple systems, there is a possibility of a delay in the onset of the Northeast Monsoon.”IMD’s assessment of the Southwest Monsoon 2025 (June–September) shows it was above normal and well-distributed. Overall, the country received 8% above-normal rainfall: 937.2 mm compared to the normal 868.6 mm.
East and Northeast India experienced mostly dry monsoon conditions, similar to those of last year. These regions experienced the second-lowest rainfall, resulting in the third-warmest season since 1901. The Northwest had the sixth-highest rainfall since 1901.
The IMD highlighted that the above-normal rainfall during the monsoon was due to a higher number of low-pressure systems (LPS) than usual, with 18 LPS forming and lasting 69 days, compared to the normal of 13 LPS lasting 55 days. Furthermore, ENSO conditions approaching the threshold level for La Niña. A weaker Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) also contributed to the favorable rainfall conditions.